It's Finally Out! PREDICTING THE PAST is Now Available

I began writing this blog thirteen years ago in 2013. 

In my first post, I wrote of my eagerness to "better understand why we are increasingly wondering 'what if?' by examining how "[counterfactual] observations about the past" were "becom[ing]...commonplace in our present-day world."

More than a decade later, I am presenting my conclusions.  

Predicting the Past is nearly 900 pages long and covers 3000 years of western history.  (It was originally 600 manuscript pages longer, egads).  I've revised it at least half a dozen times.  In its final form, it represents the distillation of my thinking on the topic.  

Could it have been shorter?  Of course.  But it's futile to wonder what might have been.  (LOL.  At least that's what some of the skeptics I discuss in the book would have said, if they were able to see it today).  

The reason for the book's length is simple: the existing scholarly literature on counterfactual history has long neglected to document the ubiquity of "what ifs" in the western tradition.  I felt I needed to address this shortcoming by tracing the ways in which western historians, writers, theologians, philosophers, politicians, and others speculated about the historical events of their day.  Only after pursuing the task of documentation could I tackle the task of interpretation.

I should note that while my book is long, it is hardly the final word on the subject.  In fact, I hope its many analytical claims prompt a broader discussion that can help us better understand how counterfactual history has evolved in the western world.

Thanks to everyone that has followed The Counterfactual History review since 2013.  To date, the blog has apparently received nearly 600,000 page views, which is hard for me to assess, but is certainly gratifying.

I love being part of the counterfactual history community and hope you enjoy my new contribution!